Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
